statsmodels.tsa.statespace.exponential_smoothing.ExponentialSmoothing¶
-
class
statsmodels.tsa.statespace.exponential_smoothing.
ExponentialSmoothing
(endog, trend=False, damped_trend=False, seasonal=None, initialization_method='estimated', initial_level=None, initial_trend=None, initial_seasonal=None, bounds=None, concentrate_scale=True, dates=None, freq=None, missing='none')[source]¶ Linear exponential smoothing models
- Parameters
- endogarray_like
The observed time-series process \(y\)
- trendbool,
optional
Whether or not to include a trend component. Default is False.
- damped_trendbool,
optional
Whether or not an included trend component is damped. Default is False.
- seasonal
int
,optional
The number of periods in a complete seasonal cycle for seasonal (Holt-Winters) models. For example, 4 for quarterly data with an annual cycle or 7 for daily data with a weekly cycle. Default is no seasonal effects.
- initialization_method
str
,optional
Method for initialize the recursions. One of:
‘estimated’
‘concentrated’
‘heuristic’
‘known’
If ‘known’ initialization is used, then initial_level must be passed, as well as initial_slope and initial_seasonal if applicable. Default is ‘estimated’.
- initial_level
float
,optional
The initial level component. Only used if initialization is ‘known’.
- initial_trend
float
,optional
The initial trend component. Only used if initialization is ‘known’.
- initial_seasonalarray_like,
optional
The initial seasonal component. An array of length seasonal or length seasonal - 1 (in which case the last initial value is computed to make the average effect zero). Only used if initialization is ‘known’.
- boundsiterable[
tuple
],optional
An iterable containing bounds for the parameters. Must contain four elements, where each element is a tuple of the form (lower, upper). Default is (0.0001, 0.9999) for the level, trend, and seasonal smoothing parameters and (0.8, 0.98) for the trend damping parameter.
- concentrate_scalebool,
optional
Whether or not to concentrate the scale (variance of the error term) out of the likelihood.
Notes
The parameters and states of this model are estimated by setting up the exponential smoothing equations as a special case of a linear Gaussian state space model and applying the Kalman filter. As such, it has slightly worse performance than the dedicated exponential smoothing model, sm.tsa.ExponentialSmoothing, and it does not support multiplicative (nonlinear) exponential smoothing models.
However, as a subclass of the state space models, this model class shares a consistent set of functionality with those models, which can make it easier to work with. In addition, it supports computing confidence intervals for forecasts and it supports concentrating the initial state out of the likelihood function.
References
- [1] Hyndman, Rob, Anne B. Koehler, J. Keith Ord, and Ralph D. Snyder.
Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach. Springer Science & Business Media, 2008.
Methods
clone
(endog[, exog])filter
(params[, cov_type, cov_kwds, …])Kalman filtering
fit
([start_params, transformed, …])Fits the model by maximum likelihood via Kalman filter.
fit_constrained
(constraints[, start_params])Fit the model with some parameters subject to equality constraints.
fix_params
(params)Fix parameters to specific values (context manager)
from_formula
(formula, data[, subset])Not implemented for state space models
handle_params
(params[, transformed, …])hessian
(params, *args, **kwargs)Hessian matrix of the likelihood function, evaluated at the given parameters
impulse_responses
(params[, steps, impulse, …])Impulse response function
information
(params)Fisher information matrix of model.
Initialize (possibly re-initialize) a Model instance.
initialize_approximate_diffuse
([variance])Initialize approximate diffuse
initialize_known
(initial_state, …)Initialize known
initialize_statespace
(**kwargs)Initialize the state space representation
Initialize stationary
loglike
(params, *args, **kwargs)Loglikelihood evaluation
loglikeobs
(params[, transformed, …])Loglikelihood evaluation
observed_information_matrix
(params[, …])Observed information matrix
opg_information_matrix
(params[, …])Outer product of gradients information matrix
predict
(params[, exog])After a model has been fit predict returns the fitted values.
Prepare data for use in the state space representation
score
(params, *args, **kwargs)Compute the score function at params.
score_obs
(params[, method, transformed, …])Compute the score per observation, evaluated at params
set_conserve_memory
([conserve_memory])Set the memory conservation method
set_filter_method
([filter_method])Set the filtering method
set_inversion_method
([inversion_method])Set the inversion method
set_smoother_output
([smoother_output])Set the smoother output
set_stability_method
([stability_method])Set the numerical stability method
simulate
(params, nsimulations[, …])Simulate a new time series following the state space model
simulation_smoother
([simulation_output])Retrieve a simulation smoother for the state space model.
smooth
(params[, cov_type, cov_kwds, …])Kalman smoothing
transform_jacobian
(unconstrained[, …])Jacobian matrix for the parameter transformation function
transform_params
(unconstrained)Transform unconstrained parameters used by the optimizer to constrained parameters used in likelihood evaluation
untransform_params
(constrained)Transform constrained parameters used in likelihood evaluation to unconstrained parameters used by the optimizer
update
(params[, transformed, …])Update the parameters of the model
Properties
Names of endogenous variables.
The names of the exogenous variables.
(list of str) List of human readable parameter names (for parameters actually included in the model).
(array) Starting parameters for maximum likelihood estimation.
(list of str) List of human readable names for unobserved states.